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14/04/2010
It is not true that since its peak during the Second World War the United Kingdom’s electoral turnout has been in steady decline. Even as recently as 1992 some 77 per cent of British voters went to the polls.
UK voting trends switched decisively downwards in 1997, when they plummeted to just 59%, an 18 percentage point decline without any precedent in British history. They then stayed at this low level in 2001. The UK now seems to have settled into a low turnout rut.
The turnout predicted from an Ipsos/Mori poll recently projected likely voter turnout in the 2010 election at about 53 per cent, compared with the last election’s level of just over 61 per cent. This may be a little on the low side but is cause for concern.
There is no doubt that the increasing use of postal votes and proxy voting rule changes have made it easier to vote although critics cite concerns over the validity of this system.
Fall in turnout is likely to be due to a number of factors but is thought by some be related to a decline in voters’ identification with parties and in their confidence with parties in general. Recent scandals over MP’s expenses may have had less of an adverse affect on levels of trust in politicians and parties than one might think. On a scale from 0 to 10 confidence levels were in the range from 3.5 to 4.5 in 2005, bottoming out at 2.5 to 3 points in June 2009- the peak of the expenses scandal and rising again, by November 2009 to the range from 3 to 3.5 points.
Also, very important is the role of young voters. An Electoral Commission report stated that only 56 per cent of 17-24 year olds were even registered to vote. It is likely that non-voting in the 18-34 age group will exceed 45% in this year’s election. With over 4 million new voters since the last election this is a valuable section of society for any of the parties to target.
A recent report based on a YouGov report estimated there to be over 12 million undecided voters. While this figure doesn’t take into account people’s inclination to actually vote (if it did the figure would be closer to 6.5 million), it is clear, that in any case, a good number of people have no idea who they will be voting for only a few weeks out from the election.
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